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Prediction market for the five cities election

Election campaign posters in Taichung

The five cities election (五都選舉) is exactly one month away. On 27 November voters will go to the polls in the newly merged and upgraded special municipalities of Kaohsiung, Tainan and Taichung as well as Taipei City and Taipei County (which will be renamed Xinbei City/New Taipei City). The latest numbers from National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Centre give some pointers to the likely results.

Greater Kaohsiung

  • Chen Chu (DPP) 64.1
  • Yang Chiu-hsing (Ind) 26.5
  • Huang Chao-shun (KMT) 8.7

Greater Tainan

  • William Lai (DPP) 85.0
  • Kuo Tien-tsai (KMT) 9.4

Greater Taichung

  • Jason Hu (KMT) 67.0
  • Su Jia-chyuan (DPP) 31.5 (Su is not actually listed, price is for “other”)

Taipei County (soon to be renamed)

  • Eric Chu (KMT) 49.4
  • Tsai Ing-wen (DPP) 50.6

Taipei City

  • Hau Lung-bin (KMT) 45.5
  • Su Tseng-chang (DPP) 51.5

I’ll just briefly comment on the current situation. In the three cornered race in Kaohsiung it seems the dump-save effect has led to KMT voters dumping the KMT candidate and shifting their support to the independent candidate and former DPP member Yang Chiu-hsing. This may be a result of James Soong recently endorsing Yang. However, Chen Chu still has strong support and will probably win comfortably regardless of how the rest of the votes split between Huang and Yang.

Tainan City is a walk in the park for the William Lai of the DPP. Incumbent Taichung Mayor Jason Hu of the KMT seems to have a comfortable lead in Taichung.

The races in both Taipei City and the soon to be renamed Taipei County are very close. Although incumbent Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin, embroiled in various scandals surrounding the Taipei Flora Expo and construction of the Xinsheng Overpass, seems to be struggling. The results in these two cities will determine which party claims victory in the elections. If the KMT can hold on to the two Taipei seats then it will regard this is a victory. If the DPP can win one or both of the Taipei seats then it will be a good result for them.

The prediction market for the 2012 presidential election is also quite interesting. The DPP is priced at 51.8 ahead of the KMT at 49.2. The market for individual candidates currently looks like this:

  • Ma Ying-jeou (KMT) 33.0
  • Frank Hsieh (DPP) 32.4
  • Tsai Ing-wen (DPP) 23.4
  • Lin Yi-hsiung (DPP) 9.9
  • Su Tseng-chang (DPP) 6.5

Obviously as the incumbent president and KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou is almost certain to be the KMT’s candidate in 2012. There is also a separate market for the DPP’s candidate for the presidential election. It has Frank Hsieh at 39.8, Tsai Ing-wen at 34.1 and Su Tseng-chang at 23.0. I find it surprising that Frank Hsieh is the front runner. Su Tseng-chang probably has a low price as he is expected to win the election for Mayor of Taipei City taking him out of the race. I think once the five cities elections are over it will become clearer who the likely DPP candidate will be.

*All data taken from on the morning of 27 October 2010.

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File next to:
Election campaign posters in Taichung
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2008 Presidential election links – special edition


Comment from Adam
Time 28 October 2010 at 3:12 pm

the election is pretty stupid….green will always vote for green and blue will always vote for blue… i do not care what will happen, but blue has my vote and no matter what happens, i still vote blue.

Comment from David Reid
Time 28 October 2010 at 3:30 pm

Adam, I am sure there are voters who change their votes from election to election. Some people in Taiwan have told me this directly. Furthermore the amount of voters who are motivated to turn out affects the election results. Thankfully election results are not as predictable as you seem to suggest. They tap into various aspects of public sentiment and play a key role in the democratic process.

I am a bit confused by your attitude though. You say “the election is pretty stupid” and “i do not care what will happen” but you “still vote blue.”

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