It is disappointing to see that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not provided funding to European academics to observe next month’s presidential and legislative elections (“European election observers denied funding by MOFA,” Dec. 2, page 1).

The elections should be an opportunity to showcase Taiwan’s democratic development to the rest of the world.

DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has a good chance of winning the election. If Tsai is victorious, it will mark another transition of power and solidify Taiwan’s transition to democracy that began with the lifting of martial law in 1987.

However, one hopes the transition will be smooth and trouble-free. A look at Taiwan’s recent history suggests the possibility of trouble.

KMT supporters were engaged in violent protests following the election victories of Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) as president in 2000 and 2004. KMT Legislator Chiu Yi (邱毅) even served time in jail for his role in leading a riot in Kaohsiung after the 2004 election.

The four-month transition period between next year’s presidential election and the swearing-in of the president is a window during which more trouble could potentially occur.

It is pleasing to the see the formation of an international committee, led by eminent figures that include former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) and former presidential adviser Peng Ming-min (彭明敏), to observe the election (“US Congress to watch elections ‘closely,’” Dec. 3, page 1).

I hope that their efforts to ensure that the election is free and fair will also be supported by NGOs such as the Carter Center and Asian Network for Free Elections.

It is also important that as many foreign academics and media personnel as possible are in Taiwan at the time of the election to closely monitor the situation.

The presence of foreign observers during the election will help ensure that the democratic gains made in Taiwan during the past two decades are not put at risk.

• 2008 Presidential election links – special edition
• More election campaign posters
• Combined elections should be put to referendum
• Green Party bike ride
• Prediction market for the five cities election

It was expected that the DPP’s presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would announce her running mate this weekend. However, a report from CNA today suggests that Tsai may delay the announcement until October. Tsai is certainly keeping everyone guessing about who she will choose.

While a number of names have been mentioned there seems to be no certainty about who Tsai will pick. Some potential candidates who have been the subject of media speculation are listed below.

• Perng Fai-nan (彭淮南) – Governor of the Central Bank
• Lin Hsin-yi (林信義) – former Vice Premier
• Lin Chuan (林全) - former Minister of Finance
• Lin I-hsiung (林義雄) - former DPP chairman
• Lee Yuan-tseh (李遠哲) – former head of Academia Sinica and Nobel Laureate
• Lai In-jaw (賴英照) - former President of the Judicial Yuan
• Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) - DPP Secretary-General

The former premiers Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌), Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) and Yu Shyi-kun (游錫堃) were on my original list, but it seems they have been sidelined somewhat. They were given key positions on Tsai’s campaign team and included on the DPP’s legislator-at-large list.

Tsai may well choose someone who is not a member of the DPP in order to maximise her ticket’s appeal to swinging and pan-blue voters. However, she will need to appoint someone who is trusted by the DPP and it is likely she will choose someone who served in a senior position during the Chen Shui-bian administration from 2000 to 2008.

It is also possible that the candidate may not even be on this list. We will find out sooner or later.

• Possible DPP & KMT vice presidential candidates
• Taiwan needs a Green president(ial candidate)
• On the campaign trail
• Frank Hsieh campaigns in Taipei
• Prediction market for the five cities election

Last night I attended a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) campaign rally in Taichung. The rally for legislative candidate Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) and presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) was held in a primary school hall in the West District of Taichung.

As people entered the gates there were tables for collecting donations and registering support for the campaigns. Flags were also handed out and people holding minor positions in the party were introduced by name as they entered the hall.

In the hall there was lots of handshaking and greeting among the various local politicians and their supporters.

Chen Shu-hua (陳淑華) and Huang Guo-shu (黃國書), both city councillors, were the MCs for the evening. Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), a professor at Soochow University and regular on the Talking Show (大話新聞), and Cheng Li-chiun (鄭麗君), a legislator-at-large candidate for the DPP, came on stage to warm to warm up the crowd. Hsu spoke about Lin Chia-lung’s leadership of the student movement in the early years of Taiwan’s democratisation.

Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) was the next to enter the hall and speak to the crowd. He narrowly missed out on being elected as mayor of Taichung last year. He is now directing Tsai Ing-wen’s campaign in central Taiwan.

Lin Chia-lung was next to speak. Lin is considered one of the leading figures in the younger generation of DPP politicians. He was a leader of the Wild Lily Movement (野百合學運) and later went on to serve as Minister of the Government Information Office. He moved to Taichung in 2005 to run for mayor and has since been based in Taichung with the hope of being elected to higher office.

Tsai Ing-wen took to the stage flanked by an entourage of local politicians some of whom were candidates for the legislature. I felt her speech was a bit flat. She talked about the DPP’s achievements while it controlled the executive from 2000 to 2008 including the development of the Taichung Science Park. However, she tended to ramble on a bit and lacked a clear message for voters to take away. However, it’s still early days in the campaign and this rally was more of a warm up than the main event.

*More photos in the DPP rally in Taichung set at flickr.

• DPP rally on eve of 1025 protest
• Prediction market for the five cities election
• 830 protest in Taipei
• A new generation steps forward in the elections
• Possible DPP & KMT vice presidential candidates

In an 11 April letter, Chunghwa Telecom told NTD-AP that it would not be able to renew their relay contract when it expires on 9 August because of “insufficient bandwidth” on its new satellite, ST-2, which is about to replace the existing one, ST-1.

“The contradictions in the reasons given by Chunghwa Telecom for not renewing the contract and the supposed limitations of the new satellite’s technical capacity suggest that the real reasons lie elsewhere,” Reporters Without Borders said. “The similarities of this dispute and the dispute between NTD-AP’s parent station, NTD-TV, and the French satellite operator Eutelsat, make us fear the worst.

“In the latter case, it was established that the Chinese authorities were involved and had pressured Eutelsat to stopping relaying NTD-TV, which they have repeatedly criticized. If it turns out that the same has happened with NTD-AP, the credibility of the Taiwanese government, which has a controlling share of Chunghwa Telecom, will be badly damaged.”

J. Michael Cole at the Taipei Times earlier wrote a detailed article questioning Chunghwa Telecom’s actions. According to Cole contradictions in Chunghwa Telecom’s responses raised questions about possible interference by Taiwanese or Chinese authorities in the decision not to renew the contract.

This is yet another issue causing concern about declining press freedom in Taiwan since the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) took office in 2008. Some of these concerns were detailed in an article published on on the government operated Taiwan Today website last week. However, the article is currently unavailable. I have recovered it from Google’s cache and republished it here. I have written to Taiwan Today asking for an explanation. A free press is one of the pillars of democracy. Unfortunately it seems this pillar is continuing to erode in Taiwan.

Update: NTD-AP angry at lack of progress in Chunghwa dispute, Taipei Times, 1 June 2011

Update 2: NTD TV, Chunghwa reach agreement, Taipei Times, 21 June 2011

Taiwan’s courts have handed down not guilty verdicts in two notable cases this week. Former president Chen Shui-bian was found not guilty in the Supreme Court in the special diplomatic funds case. The verdict was only briefly reported by most media, however its significance should not be ignored.

The verdict further vindicates A-bian’s claims that he is innocent and a victim of political persecution. In November last year A-bian and his co-defendants were all found not guilty in the financial mergers case. However, just one week later the Supreme Court ruled that A-bian and his wife Wu Shu-jen were guilty in the Longtan land deal case.

In the period between these two verdicts there was a firestorm of rhetoric from KMT politicians urging voters to show their contempt for the not guilty verdict by voting for the KMT in the upcoming elections. This subsequently led some people to question the independence of the judiciary when it handed down a guilty verdict and long prison sentences to A-bian and his wife just one week later.

The other case involves Yunlin County Commissioner Su Chih-fen (蘇治芬). Su was found not guilty of corruption charges by the District Court today. This case dates back to November 2008 which was around the same time that A-bian was first detained. Su went on an 11 day hunger strike to protest her detention before she was indicted and released. At the time of her detention Su claimed that she was a victim of “judicial persecution” and her claim is now vindicated.

Tsai Ing-wen posted the following comment on her Facebook page regarding the verdict in Su’s case. My translation in English follows.

今天下午，蘇治芬縣長在一審獲判無罪，在等待判決的這段期間，我相信雲林鄉親和我一樣，對蘇縣長個人能力、操守一直抱以高度的肯定和信任，現在司法還給蘇縣長清白，也還給所有的雲林鄉親一個公道，個人感到相當欣慰。

同時，檢察系統動輒政治辦案，濫刑起訴、濫權收押，侵害人民司法人權的嚴重狀況，已經到了不得不全面檢討、改革的地步，這也將是未來我們推動司法改革的重點。

[This afternoon Yunlin County Commissioner Su Chih-fen was found not guilty in the first hearing. During the period of waiting for the verdict I believe that the people of Yunlin County have always kept their trust in the ability and personal integrity of Su just like I have. The justice system has returned Su's state of innocence. It has also given the people of Yunlin County a sense of justice. Everybody can have a sense of feeling gratified.

At the same time, the prosecutors have easily politicised cases, indiscriminately filed charges and excessively used pre-trial detention. The situation of judicial rights is serious and infringes on everyone. It has reached the point where there is no choice but to make the promotion of a comprehensive review and reform of the justice system a key focus in the future.]

I was disappointed by Tsai’s weak response to my question about the death penalty at the meeting last Saturday. However, her comments about judicial reform in response to another question were much more impressive. I think these comments show that Tsai realises judicial reform is a task of the utmost importance if she is elected to the presidency. However, despite her legal background this is a task that Tsai cannot complete on her own. She needs strong support from the legal community and all those who support human rights and justice in Taiwan.

In June 2009 Professor Jerome Cohen expressed his dismay at the failure of legal scholars in Taiwan to speak out more about the problems in the judicial system. In the past couple of weeks we have seen the government’s fiery response to an open letter by a group of concerned Taiwan scholars. Most of the signatories to the letter are based overseas so it is not surprising scholars in Taiwan are reluctant to make similar petitions. However, as long they continue to be passive in the face of injustice it will only continue. And if it is allowed to continue then they may find themselves becoming victims. This is not a time for silence. It is time to speak out.

• A monkey in the mountains
• End of semester at Shi-Da
• Learning to read Chinese
• A road movie with a difference
• Learning Mandarin in Taiwan

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)

Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) – Su narrowly lost the primary and declared he had no interest in being the vice presidential candidate. However, he may still be persuaded to take the position.

Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) – the DPP’s presidential candidate in 2008 is still a key player in the party.

Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) – Su almost won the mayoral election in Taichung last year and is currently the DPP’s secretary-general. He is a strong campaigner and would be a good choice.

Yu Shyi-kun (游錫堃) – the former premier is more likely to be considered for the premiership if the DPP win the election.

Chen Chu (陳菊) – the popular Mayor of Kaohsiung is unlikely to give up her position there to run in the election.

Lin Yi-hsiung (林義雄) – Lin distanced himself from the DPP during Chen Shui-bian’s presidency. He could be chosen as a well-respected figure who is not connected with the Chen Shui-bian administration.

Lee Yuan-tseh (李遠哲) – the Nobel laureate and former head of Academia Sinica has often stated his support for the pan-green side of politics. He is a possibility if Tsai looks outside the party for a vice presidential candidate.

David’s analysis: Despite Su Tseng-chang’s claims that he doesn’t want the job he could well be persuaded to take it. The results of the DPP’s opinion poll show that Su has strong support and if paired with Tsai they would form a strong ticket.

Su Jia-chyuan would be an excellent choice. He ran a strong campaign for the mayoralty in Taichung and is a Pingtung native. This would complement Tsai’s support base in the north. If Tsai chose Su Jia-chyuan it would also emphasize the generational shift in the DPP leadership.

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)

Vincent Siew (蕭萬長) – many consider that the incumbent vice president is unlikely to seek a second term.

Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) – the current premier has a good relationship with Ma. He could see the vice president’s office as a stepping stone to the presidency in 2016.

Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) – the current speaker of the Legislative Yuan and a key power broker in the KMT. Wang is a somewhat enigmatic figure in Taiwan politics and his relationship with Ma has not always been good.

Wu Po-hsiung (吳伯雄) – the former KMT chairman may take the post as payback for stepping aside to allow Ma to become KMT chairman in 2009.

Eric Chu (朱立倫) – the current Mayor of New Taipei City is one of the rising stars in the KMT. He probably won’t take the vice presidential candidacy in 2012 but is a contender for president in 2016.

Chang Po-ya (張博雅) – current chair of the Central Election Commission.

Wang Ju-hsuan (王如玄) – current Minister of the Council for Labor Affairs.

Huang Ming-hui (黃敏惠) – current mayor of Chiayi City.

David’s analysis: To maximise their electoral prospects the KMT needs to choose a Taiwan-born person with a strong support base in central and southern Taiwan. Wu Den-yih and Wang Jin-pyng are the two heavyweights that fit this description. Wu is probably the most likely choice although it would mean that Ma would have to appoint a new premier before the election.

Another possibility is that Ma could choose a female running mate. Chang Po-ya, Wang Ju-hsuan and Huang Ming-hui are possible choices if the KMT goes in this direction.

• Who will be Tsai’s running mate?
• Taiwan needs a Green president(ial candidate)
• On the campaign trail
• Frank Hsieh campaigns in Taipei
• Prediction market for the five cities election

Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) spoke to a group of foreign residents in Taipei yesterday morning. She first spent some time outlining her vision for Taiwan before taking questions from the floor.  Tsai is currently on leave from her position as chair of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as she competes in the party’s primary for the presidential nomination. The primary will be decided by opinion polls conducted in the next few days with the announcement of the result expected on 4 May.

In outlining her vision for Taiwan, Tsai focused mainly on relations with China and economic policy. She had some interesting ideas about Taiwan’s future economic development.

On the issue of jobs Tsai said, “We don’t have enough jobs and enough good jobs. Despite the fact you may be able to find a job, you may not be able to find a job with good pay. So the quality of jobs is important too.” Tsai then discussed how this was related to the structure of the economy. Since the 1990s as Taiwanese businesses and capital moved to China the restructuring of the economy was delayed.

This led to Tsai mentioning the effect of large numbers of Chinese tourists coming to Taiwan. “With the outward movement of industrial production to China we are exporting higher pay, better jobs to China. With the inflow of Chinese tourists we are actually importing lower pay service jobs,” Tsai said.

Tsai presented some of her ideas for creating better jobs in Taiwan. These revolved around promoting R&D industries and locating these in rural areas. She also mentioned encouraging artists to move to rural areas. Tsai also mentioned the importance of agriculture. She said Taiwan needs more professional farmers and that people from the cities need to move to the country to get involved in agriculture. These ideas are laudable but I would like to see some more concrete details of the policies.

After Tsai had talked about her vision for Taiwan there was a question and answer session. Letters from Taiwan has written about his question to Tsai on how she would deal with Beijing’s potential hostility and aggression towards the DPP.

During the question and answer session I asked Tsai, “If you are elected president will you impose a moratorium on the death penalty and will you take measures to permanently abolish the death penalty?”

Tsai replied, ”The [abolition of the] death penalty is a global trend, but before you move in that direction you have to make sure your people are prepared. If your people are not prepared you’re creating more obstacles for yourself to move towards that direction.”

“How do you make them prepared for that? You have to give them this sense of security. That is you have a good social system that protects people. And secondly you have a good judicial system which makes right decisions in cases brought to them. And then when people feel comfortable you start to tell them what we need to do in order to move forward to that goal,” she said.

Her reply only focused on the issue of abolition and she didn’t mention whether she had any intention of implementing a moratorium on the death penalty if elected to the presidency. A moratorium is a first step and doesn’t require the legal changes necessary for abolition. Taiwan had a moratorium from December 2005 to April 2010.

Unfortunately it seems that in the present political environment politicians from both the DPP or the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) are unwilling to take a principled stand on the issue of the death penalty. However, it is only through politicians taking leadership on the issue that abolition will be achieved. I hope Tsai will be more willing to directly confront this issue if she gets elected.

In responding to another question Tsai made some more substantial comments about the importance of judicial reform. ”To strengthen the protection of human rights we need to carry out a comprehensive judicial reform here. I was a law professor for a long time. I know this judicial system is not serving as the protector of justice or the protector for the disadvantaged people here. So the judicial system is the most important thing to make sure that your democracy is functioning properly and your human rights are protected,” she said.

The current controversy over appointments to the Grand Council of Justices, the gross miscarriage of justice in the Hsichih Trio case as it goes to another retrail and concerns about politicisation of the judiciary show that this is a vital issue. A professional and independent judiciary is vital for a healthy democracy. Ma Ying-jeou’s KMT government has repeatedly failed to deliver on its promises of judicial reform. Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP deserve a chance to see if they can do better.

*Video of the entire event can by viewed on YouTube. I have collected the six videos in a playlist. Also see CNA’s report on the meeting.

• Possible DPP & KMT vice presidential candidates
• Who will be Tsai’s running mate?
• Time to speak out against injustice
• Thousands march for Tibet in Taipei
• Will Ma meet the Dalai Lama?

Members of the Atayal community of Hagay (哈凱部落) protested outside the Executive Yuan in Taipei today. They called on the government to provide permanent housing to replace the temporary housing they have been living in for ten years. They also called on the government to take responsibility for the impacts of the construction of the Baling Dam in the catchment of the Shimen Reservoir.

The Hagay community originally lived in a remote location in Fuxing Township of Taoyuan County (桃園縣復興鄉). About twenty years ago the community decided to move to a new location near the Baling Bridge (巴陵橋) on the Northern Cross Island Highway to make it easier for the children to get to school.

The construction of a check dam to control sediment at Baling and the impacts of Typhoon Herb in 1996 and Typhoon Aere in 2004 washed away the community’s land. They were forced to move into temporary housing. In the photo above Dai Li-juan (戴禮娟) is talking about the difficulties families face in the temporary housing which they have had to live in for more than ten years.

The community presented a letter of appeal to a representative of the Executive Yuan. They called on the central government to provide them with permanent housing and to take responsibility for the damage to their land and the ecology of the river caused by the construction of the Baling Dam.

The experience of the Hagay community also raises broader concerns about the impacts of engineering works and construction of dams in the Shimen Reservoir catchment area. Eight major check dams have been constructed in the catchment of the Shimen Reservoir in an attempt to reduce sediment flows into the reservoir. The Baling Dam was destroyed by Typhoon Wipha in 2007.

The photo above shows the Yufeng Dam in July 2010 at Marqwang which is further upstream from Baling. The dam is already filled with sediment so it serves no useful function except to harm the ecology of the river. I have only been making observations in the area for about a year but residents of the area tell of how the stream was much deeper and full of fish before the dam was constructed.

The government spends billions of dollars on engineering works in an attempt to maintain the quality of water in the Shimen Reservoir, but the effectiveness of the works is questionable. The case of the Hagay community shows the direct effects of these works on people living in the catchment area. If the construction of the Gaotai and Bilin dams goes ahead then the impacts on the Atayal communities in the area will be of an even greater magnitude.

• The ancient trees of Lala Shan
• 314 Tibet protest in Taipei
• Visit to village relocation site in Alishan
• Close Songshan Airport
• New media in Taiwan

Taiwan’s Fourth Nuclear Power Plant under construction in August 2009 with Fulong Beach in the foreground.

I had a letter in the Taipei Times today on the subject of nuclear power. It argues that the high cost and long lead times of nuclear power projects defers investment in cleaner and safer forms of electricity generation. The text of the letter is below followed by details about anti-nuclear protests in Taipei.

Nuclear power is again in the spotlight following a serious nuclear incident in Japan triggered by last Friday’s earthquake and tsunami. This has forced people in Taiwan and around the world to reconsider the risks of nuclear power plants.

Advocates of nuclear power frequently downplay these risks, while those who oppose nuclear power seek to emphasize them.

Instead of focusing on risk, I would like to present an argument against nuclear power based on financial considerations.

Construction of Taiwan’s Fourth Nuclear Power Plant began in 1997 and it was expected to begin operations in 2009. However, it has been delayed a number of times and is now expected to begin operating in 2013.

Several hundred billion New Taiwan dollars have been invested in the plant, which has yet to generate a single watt of electricity. What if that same amount of money had been invested in renewable energy projects beginning from 1997?

First, these projects would have begun to generate power in a much shorter time frame. Planning and construction of a wind or solar power plant should take no more than two years, compared with more than a decade for nuclear power. In the time frame of more than a decade Taiwan could have developed renewable energy capacity that would make a significant contribution to the nation’s energy needs.

Second, the development of wind and solar power plants would have stimulated the development of industry in Taiwan that could have manufactured these technologies for export. While these industries have developed in Taiwan in recent years, Taiwan could have become a world leader if it had promoted these industries earlier.

The key point is that nuclear power is a bad investment. Everyone would be better off if the money was invested elsewhere. This would avoid the risks associated with a nuclear accident. It would also spur the development [of] alternatives that are inherently safer.

* * * * *

Anti-nuclear activists protested outside the Executive Yuan in Taipei yesterday. They called on the government to halt construction of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant in Gongliao. The Taipei Times has more details. There will be another anti-nuclear protest in Taipei on Sunday 20 March 2011. Meet at 1:30pm at the corner of Xinyi Road and Shaoxing South Street. More information here (中文).

• No place for nuclear waste
• The Ugly Isle
• No nukes for Taitung
• Energy is a hot topic
• A reminder for Taiwan

Several dozen members of Falun Gong (aka Falun Dafa) protested the arrival of Chen Zhenggao (陳政高), the governor of Liaoning Province, in Taichung this afternoon. The protesters shouted, “Chen Zhenggao, you’ve been accused, stop persecuting Falun Gong” (陳政高，你被告了，停止迫害法輪功). According to a Falun Gong website 409 Falun Gong practitioners have died as a result of persecution in Liaoning Province.

The protest was peaceful as police stood between the protesters and Chen’s entourage as he arrived at the Howard Prince Hotel.

Chen’s entourage was able to enter the hotel without incident. Chen is on the list of 11,000 ‘CCP villians’ compiled by the No CCP Villain International Alliance. The alliance says that those on the list should be barred from entering Taiwan for their role in human rights abuses. An article published in the Taipei Times on Thursday has more details about the alliance and its demands. The article reports:

The legislature passed a resolution in early December barring known CCP human rights abusers entry into Taiwan. The resolution, co-introduced by [DPP Legislator] Chen [Ting-fei] and adopted by parties on both sides of the aisle, requires government authorities — including the MAC and the NIA — to deny Chinese officials who are known to have been involved in human rights abuses entry into Taiwan.

Greater Kaohsiung and Chiayi, as well as Changhua, Hualien, Miaoli and Yunlin counties, have adopted similar, albeit separate, resolutions.

However, it seems that the efforts of city councils, the legislature and NGOs have not swayed the current KMT government to reconsider or reject the visits of Chinese officials to Taiwan.

• The day Chen Yunlin came to Taiwan
• Understanding Taiwanese religion
• Raining and rocking in Taichung
• HSR from Taichung to Taipei
• Election campaign posters in Taichung